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Market Insight: Stay circumspect
Garima Kumar, Lotus Knowlwealth
Published on Sat, Mar 13, 2010 at 14:49 IST

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MUMBAI: It was thanks to positive global cues that the Indian markets commenced the week on a positive note, profit booking at higher levels as against the marked lack of fresh triggers marked the trend for the week.

Sectoral rotation remained the key trend along with strong stock specific action. Realty stocks that had been outperformers close to the penultimate trading sessions in the previous week faced selling pressure, while the hitherto underperforming auto sector bounced back in the first half before losing steam again towards the end.

Banking stocks, especially PSU banks and more specifically the shares of State Bank of India and its associate banks surged after introduction of the bill by the Finance Minister to allow them to raise more capital from the market. Notably, the upmove was triggered after the government sought parliamentary approval to cut its stake in SBI to 51%. However, it too cooled off from higher levels as profit booking soon emerged.

The primary market action also weighed on the sentiment. After having announced the price band announced for the NMDC FPO, the stock remained on the sellers radar and lost almost 15% during the week from its weekly high. The response from the retail category in this PSU disinvestment too remained subdued. Meanwhile, the IPOs of Texmo Pipes and Man Infraconstruction which were relatively small sized listed strongly and closed with a premium of 34% and 45% respectively.

Overall, across the board buying (in the earlier trading sessions) indicated that there was still some steam left. Resultantly, despite showing signs of exhaustion, the markets rallied to breach key technical and psychological levels.

Notably, mid-cap and small-cap stocks faced higher selling pressure and underperformed the broader markets on a weekly basis.

Increase in volatility near the end of the week gave traders more room to play as the markets threatened to breakout of the sideways consolidation range. However, they could not sustain higher levels, just like global markets which too seemed to be struggling to find sustainable positive triggers.

While the week gone by was witness to relatively lower levels of volatility till the last couple of sessions, the sense of discomfort at higher levels in both, domestic and global markets promises to make the week ahead a more volatile one.

Though the commencement of the week will be highly influenced by the advance tax numbers, the post budget rally seems to have also factored in the same to a great extent.

Unless there is a strong positive surprise, the markets may react indifferently as they did post the announcement of the IIP numbers on Friday.

Stock specific action and sector specific churning would continue though these higher levels merit more caution.

High risk traders can initiate contrarian positions with a strict stop loss at higher levels. As long at the markets (the Nifty) continues to trade below 5,180 – 5,200, fresh shorts can be initiated albeit with a strict stop loss above these levels on a closing basis. Notably, there is strong support at 5,100-5,080 levels on the downside.

For investors, as the global market indicators appear inconclusive and the domestic triggers too are drying up, they can consider a 'wait and watch' approach and avoid investing heavily in the market till a correction sets in.

Report powered by www.theipoguru.com

Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst meticulous care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and opinions given are fair and reasonable, neither the analyst nor any employee of our company is in any way responsible for its contents. The company may trade in investments which are the subject of this document or in related investments and may have acted upon or used the information contained in this document or the research or the analysis on which it is based, before its publication.


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